For these reasons, prices may pass statistical tests for randomness, but they are not themselves random (although it is plausible that their randomness is random, and that randomness is random, and so on) but rather are unpredictable on the basis of market data alone. They are, however, predictable to the extent that the predictor accurately assess

The two-speed economy is likely to remain in effect. High interest rates (even after some cuts), Medicaid cuts, and other things continue to put downward pressure on lower-income and younger consumers on average. Meanwhile, fiscal spending continues to be aimed at older Americans on average, and wealthy Americans and institutions have generally loc

The uncertainty in question will not be an accident of our circumstances — it will be entirely deliberate. We want to tempt others to engage in economic behavior, the output of which is uncertain, at the opportunity cost of behavior that is presumably much more certain. In effect, we are buying uncertainty with certainty.

More money is lost by people trying to prepare for recessions than in recessions. However, there are times to lean in with conviction and other times to remain flexible, and I view this as a time to remain flexible.