More money is lost by people trying to prepare for recessions than in recessions. However, there are times to lean in with conviction and other times to remain flexible, and I view this as a time to remain flexible.

The two-speed economy is likely to remain in effect. High interest rates (even after some cuts), Medicaid cuts, and other things continue to put downward pressure on lower-income and younger consumers on average. Meanwhile, fiscal spending continues to be aimed at older Americans on average, and wealthy Americans and institutions have generally loc

US fiscal deficits will remain structurally large for the foreseeable future (i.e. for any investment time horizon of relevance, such as the next decade).

I outlined six reasons for this in my September 2024 newsletter, and they were the following:

1. Unbalanced Social Security


2. High healthcare costs


3. High defense spending


4. High interest expense


5. Political pola

In the first half of 2025, annualized construction spending on manufacturing facilities is decreasing, not increasing, indicating that there is thus far no major investment into relocating supply chains to the United States in response to tariffs. Generally speaking, carrots (subsidies) have a bigger impulse to action than sticks (tariffs) because