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Governments are wasting billions of dollars on attempting to predict events that are produced by interdependent systems and are therefore not statistically understandable at the individual level.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
Man-made smoothing of randomness produces the equivalent of John’s income: smooth, steady, but fragile.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
The Risk Black Book: What They Still Do Not Teach You at Banks and Business Schools
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Another common error in the psychology literature concerns what is called “mental accounting.” The Thorp, Kelly, and Shannon school of information theory requires that, for an investment strategy to be ergodic and eventually capture the return of the market, agents increase their risks as they are winning, but contract after losses, a technique cal
... See moreNassim Nicholas Taleb • Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
The bold conjecture made here is that everything that has life in it is to some extent antifragile (but not the reverse). It looks like the secret of life is antifragility.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
decentralization is convex to variations.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
it). So many academics propose something in one paper, then the opposite in another paper, without penalty to themselves from having been wrong in the first paper since there is a need only for consistency within a single paper, not across one’s career.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
The true hero in the Black Swan world is someone who prevents a calamity and, naturally, because the calamity did not take place,
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
a little bit of harm here and there in an economy weeds out the vulnerable firms early enough to allow them to “fail early” (so they can start again) and minimize the long-term damage to the system.