Sublime

roon is a member of the technical staff at OpenAI, or at least that’s how The Washington Post describes him.

emergent phenomena, ergodicity, radical uncertainty, and computational irreducibility.

ergodicity holds when a collection of players have the same statistical properties (particularly expectation) as a single player over time. Ensemble probabilities are similar to time probabilities. Absence of ergodicity makes the risk properties not directly transferable from observed probability to the payoff of a strategy subjected to ruin (or an

When threatened, it is not unfair for the firm to be selfish. It is not even expected to take on part of the losses; it can pass them on.

One conceit of economics is that markets as a whole can perform fairly rationally, even if many of the participants within them are irrational. But irrational behavior in the markets may result precisely because individuals are responding rationally according to their incentives. So long as most traders are judged on the basis of short-term perform

Real markets, however, don’t seem to work this way. Price movements that should happen once a year instead happen daily. Stock exchanges in New York, London, Paris, and Tokyo all show the same pattern. The curve that measures the frequency of price movements is supposed to have a minuscule tail, which accounts for rare outliers. In the real world,

This contrasted25 with the more skeptical viewpoint of the Scottish philosopher David Hume, who argued that since we could not be certain that the sun would rise again, a prediction that it would was inherently no more rational than one that it wouldn’t.26 The Bayesian viewpoint, instead, regards rationality as a probabilistic matter. In essence, B