#consumer trends

1. Spending likely to remain elevated: 71% of respondents plan to spend the same or more this year compared to last year. This lines up with the 38% increase in real consumer spend since 2007 and the median consumer having 50% more disposable income since 200.

2. State of the World underpins stress: 54% of respondents report the State of World as significant contributor to stress and 81% report the global issues to be an increasing driver of stress. This stands out to prior decades when the state of an individual’s world — social media, bullying, body image — was more likely to underpin stress.

3. Side hustle vibes reach late-majority status: 54% of respondents have a side hustle and 29% do not but would like to have a side hustle. The gig and creator economy paved the way and the freelancer movement has followed.

4. AI has potential to re-accelerate worker productivity: 30% worker productivity improvement in the 2000s decreased to 15% improvement in the 2010s, the lowest improvement dating back to the 1950s.

5. Student loan balance has nearly peaked: 4% growth in student loans since 2020 down from 20% growth in 2016-2019. Loan forgiveness and a shift in consumer educational preferences drive the leveling — 56% of respondents of college graduates who took out debt said wish they would have taken a different path.

6. Americans have tax-advantaged dollars to spend on health: $150B in healthcare savings accounts will spur growth in care navigation ($4B market, 8% annual growth), concierge medicine ($7B market, 10% annual growth), and wearables ($23B market, 13% annual growth).

7. Small businesses continue to garner trust: 38% of respondents report increasing trust in small businesses while only ~15% report increasing trust in media, government, and big business.

8. Consumers spend to enjoy life: 50% of respondents report ‘spending to live in the moment’ (as opposed to ‘saving to retire as early as possible’). Half of the ‘live in the moment’ spenders switched to this approach over the past few years.

9. Pausing financial goals unlocks additional dollars for spend: 55% of respondents report stopped saving for a financial goal last year because they did not believe they could achieve the goal. Of those that stopped, 41% plan to use the dollars to ‘live in the moment.’

10. Discretionary offerings are now expected: 34% of respondents report grocery delivery as necessary while 33% say credit cards with annual fees are necessary. Over 20% of consumers report food delivery, skincare / cosmetic treatments, coffee shops, or therapy / coaching as necessary.

11. Median willingness to spend reaches high-end status: $5 for coffee, $7 for deodorant, $15 for weekday lunch, and $30 for a workout class — these are the price thresholds consumers see as a ceiling when spending.

12. AI top of mind for consumers: over 30% of respondents report AI comes up on social media or in the news daily and over 40% report AI comes up at least weekly at work and with friends and family.

13. Consumers prefer usage-based pricing for AI: 78% of consumers report usage-based pricing as a fair way for a company to charge for AI. To have a subscription today, either companies cover the cost (OpenAI's ChatGPT ), early adopters build momentum (Perplexity), or a specific and clear use case exists (Speechify).

fun/whimsy/play