Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future?

Les bons prévisionnistes prennent du recul vis-à-vis de la question à laquelle ils doivent répondre pour prendre en compte des événements sans aucun lien, mais présentant des similitudes structurelles plutôt que de s’en remettre à leur intuition acquise grâce à leur expérience personnelle ou dans un seul domaine d’expertise.

For the knowable unknowns, the best strategy is to widen and diversify the team of advisors or stakeholders, to track down your General Greene and get a more accurate map of the terrain, or build a scale model of the compound based on satellite imaging. But it’s also crucial to keep track of the stubborn blind spots—the places where uncertainty can

In Tetlock’s analysis, the foxes—attuned to a wide range of potential sources, willing to admit uncertainty, not devoted to an overarching theory—turned out to be significantly better at predicting future events than the more single-minded experts. The foxes were full spectrum; the hedgehogs were narrowband.