Why don't more businesses use prediction markets? - Marginal REVOLUTION
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Why don't more businesses use prediction markets? - Marginal REVOLUTION
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marginalrevolution.comWhen Markets Beat
The text discusses the effectiveness of prediction markets, particularly the Iowa Electronic Markets, in forecasting election outcomes more accurately than traditional polls, while exploring underlying theories and debates surrounding their predictive capabilities.
mason.gmu.eduDan Markey, my mentor, had an interesting philosophy about fundamentals. He thought most fundamental news was nonsense. Dan had what he called the dominant fundamental factor theory, which postulated that, over an extended period, one to five years, there was one underlying fundamental factor that was the driver of the market. All the other news me
... See moreJack D. Schwager • Unknown Market Wizards: The best traders you've never heard of
There is reasonably strong evidence for what Thaler calls No Free Lunch—it is difficult (although not literally impossible) for any investor to beat the market over the long-term. Theoretically appealing opportunities may be challenging to exploit in practice because of transaction costs, risks, and other constraints on trading. Statistical pattern
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