When are Bayesian methods preferable to Frequentist?
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When are Bayesian methods preferable to Frequentist?
After several tests, however, the initial probability becomes dominated by the new information, which is known as “swamping the prior”
Scott Hartshorn • Tell Me The Odds: A 15 Page Introduction To Bayes Theorem
The point of Bayesian decision theory is to help make a decision. Or, more accurately, to describe the optimal way of making a decision, given uncertainty about the outcome.
The importance of the base rate was made famous by the psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who coined the phrase “the outside view and the inside view.” The inside view means looking at the specific case in front of you:
Tim Harford • The Data Detective
Statistics assumes that a random selection of test subjects was drawn from the population in question. However, samples can be biased by oversampling or undersampling from certain groups. In extreme cases, no representatives are drawn from a particular subset of the population.