Comparing the two outcomes of binary variables for two independent groups happens to be one of the most frequently computed procedures in applied statistics. Surprisingly, there is little agreement on the best statistical test for this situation. For large sample sizes, the chi-square test is typically recommended. For small sample sizes, the Fishe

Typically, you do not know the size of the actual effect. However, you can use a hypothesis test to determine whether an effect exists and estimate its size.

There are three important aspects of probability that we need to explain so you can integrate them into your thinking to get into the ballpark and improve your chances of catching the ball: Bayesian thinking Fat-tailed curves Asymmetries