Tips for probabilistic software - jxnl.co
technique colonized realms of life to which it did not properly belong. The key, then, is to recognize where and when it is appropriate to allow technique (or quantification or optimization) a place and where and when it would be good to circumscribe its scope. In order to do so we must have before us a clear sense of the good we seek.
theconvivialsociety.substack.com • The Limits of Optimization
In many walks of life, expressions of uncertainty are mistaken for admissions of weakness. When you first start to make these probability estimates, they may be quite poor. But there are two pieces of favorable news. First, these estimates are just a starting point: Bayes’s theorem will have you revise and improve them as you encounter new informat
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
How? Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance. Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem or a brain teaser. Mother natu
... See moreNassim Nicholas Taleb • Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto Book 1)
There are three important aspects of probability that we need to explain so you can integrate them into your thinking to get into the ballpark and improve your chances of catching the ball: Bayesian thinking Fat-tailed curves Asymmetries