This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic
Why did the SARS-1 outbreak die out after its extraordinary opening act—featuring rapid global spread, many super-spreader events, and rising alarm—whereas the SARS-2 outbreak did not? It was not just that there was somehow a more efficient public health response in 2003. After all, SARS-1 spread to many countries and it did so in many places, from
... See moreNicholas A. Christakis • Apollo's Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live
This variation in R0 across individuals in a population can be quantified, and this quantity can have subtle but important effects on the course of an epidemic. The higher this variation (or dispersion), the more likely an epidemic will feature both super-spreading events and dead-end transmission chains. That is, an epidemic involving a population
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