Apollo's Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live
Nicholas A. Christakisamazon.com
Apollo's Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live
For SARS-1, the R0 was computed to be in the range of 2.2 to 3.6, and it’s probably between 2.6 and 3.0.
The time between when a person is infected and when he or she shows signs or symptoms is called the incubation period. This ranges from two to fourteen days in SARS-2 (hence the recommended fourteen days of isolation) and is typically about six to seven days. For SARS-1, the incubation period was shorter, ranging from two to seven days. But there i
... See moreFor SARS-1, it was estimated that four importations were necessary for one transmission chain to be initiated (the other three importations would fail to start epidemics and die out). However, when an outbreak did occur, it was likely to be explosive. For SARS-2, it looks like the variation in R0 is somewhat lower than for SARS-1, so while super-sp
... See moreBecause the SARS-1 pandemic is well behind us, it is very easy to compute its CFR by simply dividing all observed deaths by all observed cases. Since the disease killed 916 out of 8,472 people that came to medical attention worldwide, that’s a crude CFR of 10.9 percent. But for some populations, such as elderly people in Hong Kong, as many as 50 pe
... See moreFor instance, measles is one of the most infectious diseases known, with an R0 estimated to be 12 to 18 (that is, a single infected person typically can infect somewhere between twelve and eighteen other people). Chicken pox is 10 to 12. Smallpox is 3.5 to 6. Ebola is 1.5 to 1.9. Seasonal influenza ranges from 0.9 to 2.1.
The Re declines naturally as an epidemic proceeds because susceptible people become infected and either die or survive and acquire immunity (to a greater or lesser extent). Thus, behaviors and attributes of the pathogen’s host matter.
The latent period is often shorter than the incubation period in SARS-2, but that was generally not the case in SARS-1. The difference between the latent period and the incubation period is sometimes known as the mismatch period; it’s calculated by measuring the incubation period and subtracting the latent period. The difference between these two p
... See moreA new pathogen has been introduced into our species, and in some form, it will now circulate among us forever.
However, because of the scarcity of tests, the CDC initially recommended that people with respiratory complaints be tested only if they had a travel history to China or an exposure to a known COVID-19 case, guidance that would persist until February 27. As a result, in the six weeks after the identification of Patient Zero, only fifty-nine other ca
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