The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma
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The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma
Credible critics must be practitioners. Building the right technology, having the practical means to change its course, not just observing and commenting, but actively showing the way, making the change, effecting the necessary actions at source, means critics need to be involved. They cannot stand shouting from the sidelines.
In a few decades, I predict most physical products will look like services. Zero marginal cost production and distribution will make it possible. The migration to the cloud will become all-encompassing, and the trend will be spurred by the ascendancy of low-code and no-code software, the rise of bio-manufacturing, and the boom in 3-D printing. When
... See moreAs people increasingly take power into their own hands, I expect inequality’s newest frontier to lie in biology.
In sum, returns on intelligence will compound exponentially. A select few artificial intelligences that we used to call organizations will massively benefit from a new concentration of ability—probably the greatest such concentration yet seen. Re-creating the essence of what’s made our species so successful into tools that can be reused and reappli
... See moreInstead, we should identify problems early and then invest more time and resources in the fundamentals. Think big. Create common standards. Safety features should not be afterthoughts but inherent design properties of all these new technologies, the ground state of everything that comes next. Despite the fierce challenges, I’m genuinely excited by
... See moreFOUR FEATURES: The unique characteristics of the coming wave that exacerbate the challenge of containment. They are asymmetry, hyper-evolution, omni-use, and autonomy.
THE COMING WAVE: An emerging cluster of related technologies centered on AI and synthetic biology whose transformative applications will both empower humankind and present unprecedented risks.
The coming wave is defined by two core technologies: artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology. Together they will usher in a new dawn for humanity, creating wealth and surplus unlike anything ever seen. And yet their rapid proliferation also threatens to empower a diverse array of bad actors to unleash disruption, instability, and even ca
... See moreOver time, technology tends toward generality.