The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma
Mustafa Suleymanamazon.com
The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma
If you were looking to monitor and direct AI research in the past, you would likely have got it wrong, blocking or boosting work that eventually proved irrelevant, entirely missing the most important breakthroughs quietly brewing on the sidelines. Science and technology research is inherently unpredictable, exceptionally open, and growing fast. Gov
... See moreCivilization’s appetite for useful and cheaper technologies is boundless. This will not change.
In a few decades, I predict most physical products will look like services. Zero marginal cost production and distribution will make it possible. The migration to the cloud will become all-encompassing, and the trend will be spurred by the ascendancy of low-code and no-code software, the rise of bio-manufacturing, and the boom in 3-D printing. When
... See moreContainment will need to respond to the nature of a technology, and channel it in directions that are easier to control. Recall the four features of the coming wave: asymmetry, hyper-evolution, omni-use, and autonomy.
The story of stirrups and feudalism highlights an important truth: new technologies help create new centers of power with new social infrastructures both enabling them and supporting them. In the last chapter we saw how this process today adds to a series of immediate challenges facing the nation-state. But over the longer term, the implications of
... See morethe future of computing was conversational. Every interaction with a computer is already a conversation of sorts, just using buttons, keys, and pixels to translate human thoughts to machine-readable code. Now that barrier was starting to break down. Machines would soon understand our language. It was, and still is, a thrilling prospect.
Credible critics must be practitioners. Building the right technology, having the practical means to change its course, not just observing and commenting, but actively showing the way, making the change, effecting the necessary actions at source, means critics need to be involved. They cannot stand shouting from the sidelines.
From the written word to sailing vessels, technology increases interconnectedness, helping to boost its own flow and spread. Each wave hence lays the groundwork for successive waves.
Little is ultimately more valuable than intelligence. Intelligence is the wellspring and the director, architect, and facilitator of the world economy. The more we expand the range and nature of intelligences on offer, the more growth should be possible.