Tell Me The Odds: A 15 Page Introduction To Bayes Theorem

Fisher and his contemporaries had no problem with the formula called Bayes’s theorem per se, which is just a simple mathematical identity. Instead, they were worried about how it might be applied. In particular, they took issue with the notion of the Bayesian prior.46 It all seemed too subjective: we have to stipulate, in advance, how likely we thi

“There is something in probability theory called a Poisson process, giving amazingly good descriptions of such random independent events occurring through time, like customer arrivals at a fast-food store, cosmic rays striking a planet, accidents in a factory, airplane mishaps, and maybe shark attacks.”