Saved by Ajinkya Wadhwa
Speculation: A Game You Can’t Win
The good news is, if you’re long and the market is going up and you don’t have a clue as to why, you get to keep all the money. Every cent. They don’t charge you a single penny if you were “only lucky.” The bad news is, if the market is going up and you’re short and you know exactly why it’s up, you don’t get any money back.
Brendan Moynihan • What I Learned Losing A Million Dollars
Speculative frenzies are part of technology, and so they are not something to be afraid of. Those who remain level-headed through this moment have the chance to build extremely important companies. But we need to make sure not to believe in the delusion that has now spread from Silicon Valley to the rest of the country, and indeed the world. That d... See more
David Cahn • AI’s $600B Question
stock-market strategies that seem too good to be true usually are. Like the historical patterns on the frequency of earthquakes, stock market data seems to occupy a sort of purgatory wherein it is not quite random but also not quite predictable. Here, however, matters are made worse because stock market data ultimately describes not some natural ph
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Beating the market should be hard; the odds of success should be low. If they weren’t, everyone would do it, and if everyone did it there would be no opportunity. So no one should be surprised that the majority of those trying to beat the market fail to do so. (The statistics show 85% of large-cap active managers didn’t beat the S&P 500 over the de... See more