Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets
In the weeks leading up to the election, there had been a pattern: stock markets everywhere tanked on good news for Trump, and rose on good news for Clinton. Good news for Trump had proven to be bad news especially in emerging markets, like Mexico. The Jane Street trading plan wasn’t all that complicated. They’d get the voting results before everyo
... See moreMichael Lewis • Going Infinite: The Rise and Fall of a New Tycoon
Sensible buyers will avoid transacting in a market like this one at any price. It is a case of uncertainty trumping risk. You know that you’d need a discount to buy from him—but it’s hard to know how much exactly it ought to be.
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Why prediction markets aren’t popular - Works in Progress
worksinprogress.co
A few more things to know:
- Since 1988, prediction markets have beaten professional pollsters 74% of the time.[1]
- In the corporate setting, prediction markets almost always beat expert forecasts.[2,3,4]
- Polymarket is implemented as open-source smart contracts on a public blockchain. This means that they can't manipulate the matching engine.... See more