Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets
When the Crowd Isn’t Wise (Published 2012)
nytimes.com
correlation_vs_causation_in_futarchy
gist.github.com
n the days leading up to the US election, pollsters had the race deadlocked. The vote was essentially a coin flip.
But over on the betting platform Polymarket, the odds were much more solidly in former President Donald Trump’s favor. On Monday, Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris 58% to 42% — a lead that, by Wednesday morning, proved to be a muc... See more
But over on the betting platform Polymarket, the odds were much more solidly in former President Donald Trump’s favor. On Monday, Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris 58% to 42% — a lead that, by Wednesday morning, proved to be a muc... See more
How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t | CNN Business
Markets with overconfident traders will produce extremely high trading volumes, increased volatility, strange correlations in stock prices from day to day, and below-average returns for active traders—all the things that we observe in the real world.