Premortem Analysis: How to Anticipate Failure

RelatedHighlights

The 5 big ideas of ShreyasIDEA 1 - Premortem instead of a postmortem for preventing problems- very low downside, very high upside

Apple • Shreyas Doshi on pre-mortems, the LNO framework, the three levels of product work, why most execution problems are strategy problems, and ROI vs. opportunity cost thinking

Pre-mortems: imagine the project or launch went wrong or failed in 6 months, what went wrong? It creates the psychological safety to mention what could go wrong and creates a shared language about failure.

Substack • Shreyas Doshi on pre-mortems, the LNO framework, the three levels of product work, why most execution problems are strategy problems, and ROI vs. opportunity cost thinking

“Invert, always invert: Turn a situation or problem upside down. Look at it backwards. What happens if all our plans go wrong? Where don’t we want to go, and how do you get there?

"Instead of looking for success, make a list of how to fail instead–through sloth, envy, resentment, self-pity, entitlement, all the mental habits of self-defeat. Avoid t... See more

Inversion

Knowing that criticism will come your way drives you to make your idea as strong as possible beforehand. Researchers will do all they can to pick holes in their own paper before sending it to a discussant. This practice is known as a premortem. In a post-mortem, a decision has flopped and you try to figure out why. In a pre-mortem, you imagine that

Apple • Shreyas Doshi on pre-mortems, the LNO framework, the three levels of product work, why most execution problems are strategy problems, and ROI vs. opportunity cost thinking

Substack • Shreyas Doshi on pre-mortems, the LNO framework, the three levels of product work, why most execution problems are strategy problems, and ROI vs. opportunity cost thinking

Inversion

Alex Edmans • May Contain Lies: How Stories, Statistics, and Studies Exploit Our Biases—And What We Can Do about It