We know that in markets and industries where there is a score, people do improve, and markets are efficient. For example, in sales, it's very clear what a good day is, it's very clear what a bad day is, and people are motivated to improve. You can measure who's great and who's not. If there's someone junior on the team who's really good, they're re

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“It’s important in most areas of life to come up with a probability instead of a yes or no,” he told me. “It’s a huge flaw that people make in a lot of areas that they analyze, whether they’re trying to form a fiscal union, pay for groceries, or hoping that they don’t get fired.” Dwan seeks to exploit these tendencies by deliberately obfuscating hi

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