Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidenc...

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

The paper analyzes Google's internal prediction markets, highlighting biases such as optimism, correlations in trading among proximate employees, and insights into how organizations process information and communicate.

static.googleusercontent.com

RelatedHighlights

When Markets Beat

The text discusses the effectiveness of prediction markets, particularly the Iowa Electronic Markets, in forecasting election outcomes more accurately than traditional polls, while exploring underlying theories and debates surrounding their predictive capabilities.

mason.gmu.edu

Prediction Markets

Benjamin Sturisky benjaminsturisky.substack.com

Prediction Markets and AI Diffusion

Dean W. Ball open.substack.com

Oftentimes with surprisingly little liquidity, prediction markets prove highly accurate and robust in the face of interference. The "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon ensures that these markets frequently outperform traditional forecasting tools like polls. For instance, the University of Iowa operates the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) as a research pro... See more

When Markets Beat

Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets and AI Diffusion

Mohit Agarwal • Kalshi’s Court Victory: A Turning Point for Prediction Markets?