Economic cycles are driven as much by human nature as by resources. When profits are flowing, it encourages overconfidence, greed, and complacency. When profits are nowhere to be found, it encourages fear, savings, and ruthless efficiency.

6 discussion topics on which David agrees with Taleb:(1) [p. 286] The sterilized randomness of games does not resemble randomness in real life; thinking it does constitutes the Ludic Fallacy (his neologism). This is exactly right, and mathematicians should pay attention. In my own list of 100 instances of chance in the real world, exactly 1 item is... See more