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A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy
robinhanson.comEconomics 101 teaches that trading is rational only when it makes both parties better off. A baseball team with two good shortstops but no pitching trades one of them to a team with plenty of good arms but a shortstop who’s batting .190. Or an investor who is getting ready to retire cashes out her stocks and trades them to another investor who is j
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Because of the possible destabilizing effects of taking inaccurate predictive data too seriously, it is sometimes advantageous to omit prediction entirely, relying wholly on feedback, unless the quality of the predictions is high.
Herbert A. Simon • The Sciences of the Artificial
correlation_vs_causation_in_futarchy
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