It’s The Economy, Stupid (AKA Economists)
The financial crisis of 2008, and the Great Recession that followed, had a similar effect on the home front. The guilty parties were elites—bankers, traders, regulators, and policymakers. Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman and an Ayn Rand fan, admitted that the crisis undermined his faith in the narrative of Free America. But those who di
... See moreGeorge Packer • Last Best Hope: America in Crisis and Renewal
the economists in this survey thought that GDP would end up at about 2.4 percent in 2008, slightly below its long-term trend. This was a very bad forecast: GDP actually shrank by 3.3 percent once the financial crisis hit. What may be worse is that the economists were extremely confident in their bad prediction. They assigned only a 3 percent chance
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Economists haven’t been able to do any better than that, and there isn’t much evidence that their forecasts are improving. The old joke about economists’ having called nine out of the last six recessions correctly has some truth to it; one actual statistic is that in the 1990s, economists predicted only 2 of the 60 recessions around the world a yea
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Après l’effondrement du capitalisme mondialisé et de l’économie de bulles dans les années 2000, la décennie 2010 est ainsi marquée par le krach de la démocratie sous la vague populiste qui emprunte des formes variées :