As a new technological age begins, strong and weak technologies often arrive together. The weak version of a technology is usually the more plausible, "immigrant" version. The stronger version will sound better to natives. Next time you hear an idea that sounds dumb, ask yourself — is it really dumb, or am I just getting old?

So a realistic lifetime of trying to adapt yourself to a broken civilization looks like: 0-2 lifetime instances of answering “Yes” to “Can I substantially improve on my civilization’s current knowledge if I put years into the attempt?” A few people, but not many, will answer “Yes” to enough instances of this question to count on the fingers of both

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To me, the most natural fit here for both art and science is the "innovation-as-mining" hypothesis. In that hypothesis:The basic dynamic is that innovation in a given area is mostly a function of how many people are trying to innovate, but "ideas get harder to find" over time.

Hypothesis 3: The "innovation as mining" hypothesisThe "innovation as mining" hypothesis says that ideas naturally get harder to find over time, in both science and art. So we should expect that it takes more and more effort over time to maintain the same rate of innovation.