How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t | CNN Business
cnn.com
How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t | CNN Business
Betting Markets Tend to Get Elections Right—With Some Notable ...
wsj.com
people who were far superior in predicting political and economic events, he found that they had a similar tendency to explore across data sources, looking for triangulation.
Martin Lindstrom • Small Data: The Tiny Clues That Uncover Huge Trends
On average, in the five presidential elections since 1992, the typical “fundamentals-based” model—one that ignored the polls and claimed to discern exactly how voters would behave without them—has missed the final margin between the major candidates by almost 7 percentage points.35 Models that take a more fox-like approach, combining economic data
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