How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t | CNN Business
cnn.com
How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t | CNN Business
A few months ago I was at a conference where Robin Hanson spoke about prediction markets.[1] He argued that given how much of companies' outcomes are driven by who they choose to hire, and how non-rigorous the process of selecting employees and revisiting those selections is, there's a literal trillion-dollar opportunity in getting it right. Predic... See more
Byrne Hobart • How Many Trillion-Dollar Companies Should There Be?
From prediction markets to info finance
vitalik.eth.limo
Betting Markets Tend to Get Elections Right—With Some Notable ...
wsj.com
Experts engaging in traditional peer review, providing their opinion on whether an experimental result would replicate, were right 58% of the time. A betting market in which the traders were the exact same experts and those experts had money on the line predicted correctly 71% of the time.