Equity Rotations, Cash-Secured Puts, and Gold Dislocations - Lyn Alden
Gold historically was the underlying monetary system until recently. Modern tech is by far, more important than gold now, and isn’t essential currently for a reserve system, as tech is much more important to underpin an economic system. Institutions and govts will take tech over gold now .
Dan • Tech Dollar 2: The War of the Worlds and Fate of the Dollar
【降息后的首轮考验——现在经济处在什么状态】
如引文所述，历史规律表明降息周期初期常在衰退和二次通胀之间摇摆，先来看看首次降息后的经济数据如何（摆向哪边）。但先要明确的是，很多行业都并非利率敏感性行业，利率变化传导到实体经济复苏需要“传 导周期“，加息的副作用可能还未显现完全，首月数据仅能作为短期参考。
【1. 过去1个月的经济数据】
⭐零售销售月率：0.1%，超预期-0.2%
⭐当周初请失业金人数：跟预期数据差不多，未见到明显提升
⭐JOLTs职位空缺：804万人，超预期扩张
⭐ISM制造业PMI：47.2，略低于预期47.5
⭐ISM非制造业PMI：54.9，超预期扩张
⭐核心PCE：2.7%，略有反弹但通胀并非现阶段的主要矛盾
⭐非农就业：25.4万人，超预期修复（但这个数据失真情况严... See more
As Figure 19.1 illustrates, when it takes about 20 or more ounces (622 grams) of gold to buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average, financial assets have become overvalued and are topping out, and it’s time to shift into real assets. Conversely, when less than two ounces (62 grams) of gold can buy the Dow Jones Industrials, then financial assets are che
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