Some people emphasize the idea that "believing in true things is Good and believing false things is Bad." But I think the world is more complicated than that. You strive to believe in things that you hope are true or in things that are definitively not always true (e.g. good always triumphs over evil). But whether in politics, religion, investing, ... See more

Overconfidence: As the WYSIATI rule implies, neither the quantity nor the quality of the evidence counts for much in subjective confidence. The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little. We often fail to allow for the possibility that evide

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In the movie, the matrix was built to be a more comfortable version of the world. Our brains, likewise, have evolved to make our version of the world more comfortable: our beliefs are nearly always correct; favorable outcomes are the result of our skill; there are plausible reasons why unfavorable outcomes are beyond our control; and we compare fav

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