Saved by Johanna
Effectiveness beats accuracy
the fact that the few theories we can test have produced quite poor results suggests that many of the ideas we haven’t tested are very wrong as well. We are undoubtedly living with many delusions that we do not even realize.
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Six fundamental beliefs that bias our view of the world:
1. My experience is a reasonable reference.
2. I make correct assessments of the world.
3. I am good.
4. My group is a reasonable reference.
5. My group is good.
6. People's attributes (not context) shape outcomes.
1. My experience is a reasonable reference.
2. I make correct assessments of the world.
3. I am good.
4. My group is a reasonable reference.
5. My group is good.
6. People's attributes (not context) shape outcomes.
Between hindsight bias, fake causality, positive bias, anchoring/priming, et cetera, et cetera, and above all the dreaded confirmation bias, once an idea gets into your head, it’s probably going to stay there.
Eliezer Yudkowsky • Rationality
confirmation bias is often the difference between sounding smart and being right. And sometimes something much, much worse.