Economics & Marginalia: July 12, 2024
Howard Marks Memo - The Winds of Change
oaktreecapital.comGovernments are wasting billions of dollars on attempting to predict events that are produced by interdependent systems and are therefore not statistically understandable at the individual level.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
In essence, we’ve been making plans—whether consciously or not—as if we would have ongoing productivity growth of 3 percent or more, along with the asset prices that would accompany such a boom. When you combine plans based on 3 percent gains with a reality of much inferior performance, sooner or later you get a crash.