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Kai-Fu Lee • AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order
【降息后的首轮考验——现在经济处在什么状态】
如引文所述，历史规律表明降息周期初期常在衰退和二次通胀之间摇摆，先来看看首次降息后的经济数据如何（摆向哪边）。但先要明确的是，很多行业都并非利率敏感性行业，利率变化传导到实体经济复苏需要“传 导周期“，加息的副作用可能还未显现完全，首月数据仅能作为短期参考。
【1. 过去1个月的经济数据】
⭐零售销售月率：0.1%，超预期-0.2%
⭐当周初请失业金人数：跟预期数据差不多，未见到明显提升
⭐JOLTs职位空缺：804万人，超预期扩张
⭐ISM制造业PMI：47.2，略低于预期47.5
⭐ISM非制造业PMI：54.9，超预期扩张
⭐核心PCE：2.7%，略有反弹但通胀并非现阶段的主要矛盾
⭐非农就业：25.4万人，超预期修复（但这个数据失真情况严... See more
China’s penetration into Brazil presents some policy challenges. First, there is the sheer weight of the trade dependency. Without the China trade surplus to cushion its current account deficit, Brazil would have much greater financing needs. “The administration knows that if things were to go wrong China might punish us and our trade surplus would
... See moreRichard Lapper • Beef, Bible and bullets: Brazil in the age of Bolsonaro
In magnitudes that Argentines could only dream of, the U.S. government has been spending more than it raises in taxes, and American consumers and businesses have been importing more goods than they have been exporting, with borrowing from foreigners covering much of the gaps. The record budget deficit of about $413 billion for 2004, and the record
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