because their causes were knowable, their consequences were predictable. But only individually, for not even the canniest seer can specify cumulative effects. Little things add up in unpredictably big ways—and yet, leaders can’t let uncertainties paralyze them. They must appear to know what they’re doing, even when they don’t.

For the knowable unknowns, the best strategy is to widen and diversify the team of advisors or stakeholders, to track down your General Greene and get a more accurate map of the terrain, or build a scale model of the compound based on satellite imaging. But it’s also crucial to keep track of the stubborn blind spots—the places where uncertainty can

Yet in organizational life, particularly in times of stress or crisis, pressure mounts to take quick action. That pressure plays into many people’s strengths. You may have been there before. You know how to rise to the occasion. Even if you do not have the foggiest idea of what to do, you have a strong incentive to give in to others’ demands that y