
Bayesian Statistics for Beginners: a step-by-step approach

If the philosophical underpinnings of Bayes’s theorem are surprisingly rich, its mathematics are stunningly simple. In its most basic form, it is just an algebraic expression with three known variables and one unknown one. But this simple formula can lead to vast predictive insights. Bayes’s theorem is concerned with conditional probability. That i
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Think of it this way. In a bell curve type of situation, like displaying the distribution of height or weight in a human population, there are outliers on the spectrum of possibility, but the outliers have a fairly well-defined scope. You’ll never meet a man who is ten times the size of an average man. But in a curve with fat tails, like wealth, th
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