August 2025 Newsletter: Tighter Fiscal, Looser Monetary
In a stark contrast, our report shows that higher tariff barriers in deficit countries like the United States only have a minor impact on global imbalances. This is because tariffs act as a negative supply shock in the tariffing countries. They reduce both investment, which is less profitable, and savings to smooth the income shock—leaving current
... See morePierre-Olivier Gourinchas • Global Current Account Balances Widen, Reversing Narrowing Trend
What happens to the markets if the US Dollar somehow loses its status as the global reserve currency? The climate change threat isn’t going away any time soon. Will a further run up in the financial markets create such extreme wealth disparity that it causes violent unrest? Will governments tax investment gains, or even stifle innovation, in order ... See more
notboring.co • Compounding Crazy

4th Quarter Commentary January 2024
A perspective on historical economic eras and the implications for current market risks and investment strategies, with a focus on factors such as global trade, labor arbitrage, and the rise of China.
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