Apollo's Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live

In terms of evolutionary biology, the virus has had what is known as an “ecological release.” This refers to the expansion of range and the population explosion that occurs when a species is freed from constraints it previously faced. The typical example of this is invasive species introduced by humans such as the cane toads that overwhelmed Austra

By May 1, COVID-19 had become the leading daily killer in the United States, far eclipsing the deaths caused by the seasonal flu and even surpassing cancer and heart disease. By July 1, there were 130,761 recorded deaths in the United States and 518,135 deaths worldwide—and no end in sight.

One of these features, paradoxically, was that SARS-1 was actually too deadly. Epidemiologists quantify the lethality of pathogens in two primary ways. The infection fatality rate (IFR) is the probability a person will die if he or she gets infected. The case fatality rate (CFR) is the probability a person will die after being diagnosed with the co

Since there are numerically so many more domestic than international travelers, it should not be surprising that the domestic risk is greater. These scientists concluded that the imposition of restrictions on international travel had a limited effect on the virus’s spread.

If most transmission occurs before disease is apparent (as happens in HIV), reactive control measures (where public health workers wait for cases to appear in order take measures like contact tracing and quarantine) will be ineffective. Conversely, successful disease control (as happened with SARS-1) is facilitated by low transmission by asymptomat

Only seven types of the coronavirus are known to infect humans. Four of them cause the common cold. Two of those four, OC43 and HKU1, originally came from rodents, and the other two, 229E and NL 63, came from bats. The other three types that afflict human beings are SARS-1, SARS-2, and Middle East respiratory syndrome, known as MERS.

This variation in R0 across individuals in a population can be quantified, and this quantity can have subtle but important effects on the course of an epidemic. The higher this variation (or dispersion), the more likely an epidemic will feature both super-spreading events and dead-end transmission chains. That is, an epidemic involving a population

A new pathogen has been introduced into our species, and in some form, it will now circulate among us forever.

“Closed-off management” involved many features.30 People were required to shelter in their homes and were given permission to leave only once or twice a week for essentials. Shoppers waited in lines and kept six feet of separation between themselves and others—a development that stunned both local and foreign observers familiar with the usual press