that knowing the right thing to do in a theoretical version of the economy, which obeys a number of mathematical assumptions, may have virtually no bearing in an economy that deviates from those assumptions

If we had a magic wand we would find out exactly what proportion of these outcomes were caused by actions that are repeatable, versus the role of random risk and luck that swayed those actions one way or the other. But we don’t have a magic wand. We have brains that prefer easy answers without much appetite for nuance. So identifying the traits we