Adversarial Collaboration: An EDGE Lecture by Daniel Kahneman

In theory, science should work this way. The notion of scientific consensus is tricky, but the idea is that the opinion of the scientific community converges toward the truth as ideas are debated and new evidence is uncovered. Just as in the stock market, the steps are not always forward or smooth.

Discussion—analysis of a problem —jumps haphazardly from one aspect to another as the conferees make points supporting their views and attacking those of others. Of course, a host of other factors also come into play to cloud the issues and defeat objective analysis, such as the differing but unstated assumptions on which the participants base thei

Coordinated behavior is at the core of many asymmetric outcomes, including favorable (best-selling books, venture capital) and unfavorable (national security, lending) outcomes. Be mindful of the level of diversity and recognize that state changes often come suddenly.

The experts could make their individual judgments, but they had to do so as part of a team that took one another’s concerns into account, discussed unplanned developments, and agreed on the way forward.