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A Message From the Past
History is mostly the study of surprising events. But it is often used by investors and economists as an unassailable guide to the future.
Morgan Housel • The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness
The typical attempt to clear up an uncertain future is to gaze further and squint harder—to forecast with more precision, more data, and more intelligence. Far more effective is to do the opposite: Look backward, and be broad. Rather than attempting to figure out little ways the future might change, study the big things the past has never avoided.
Morgan Housel • Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes
Predicting what you’ll use your savings for assumes you live in a world where you know exactly what your future expenses will be, which no one does. I save a lot, and I have no idea what I’ll use the savings for in the future. Few financial plans that only prepare for known risks have enough margin of safety to survive the real world.