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Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform

Second-order thinking involves asking ourselves if what we are doing now is going to get us the results we want.

Rhiannon Beaubien • The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts

First-level thinking looks similar. Everyone reaches the same conclusions. This is where things get interesting. The road to out-thinking people can’t come from first-order thinking. It must come from second-order thinking. Extraordinary performance comes from seeing things that other people can’t see.

Shane Parrish • Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform

Second-order thinking is thinking farther ahead and thinking holistically. It requires us to not only consider our actions and their immediate consequences, but the subsequent effects of those actions as well. Failing to consider the second- and third-order effects can unleash disaster.

Rhiannon Beaubien • The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts

Second-order thinking teaches us two important concepts that underlie the use of this model. If we’re interested in understanding how the world really works, we must include second and subsequent effects. We must be as observant and honest as we can about the web of connections we are operating in.

Rhiannon Beaubien • The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts

Almost everyone can anticipate the immediate results of their actions. This type of first-order thinking is easy and safe but it’s also a way to ensure you get the same results that everyone else gets. Second-order thinking is thinking farther ahead and thinking holistically. It requires us to not only consider our actions and their immediate conse

Rhiannon Beaubien • The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts

Second order thinkers ask themselves the question “And then what?” This means thinking about the consequences of repeatedly eating a chocolate bar when you are hungry and using that to inform your decision. If you do this you’re more likely to eat something healthy.

Shane Parrish • Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform

Let’s look at two areas where second-order thinking can be used to great benefit: Prioritizing long-term interests over immediate gains Constructing effective arguments

Rhiannon Beaubien • The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts

A lot of extraordinary things in life are the result of things that are first-order negative, second order positive. So just because things look like they have no immediate payoff, doesn’t mean that’s the case. All it means is that you’ll have less competition if the second and third order consequences are positive because everyone who thinks at th... See more