Sublime

FIGURE 10-7: THE PARETO

one of the most important feedbacks is between what he calls

what good is a prediction if you aren’t willing to put money on it?

someone with an informed, original opinion about what the betting line should be, usually formulated through painstaking statistical modeling.

I came to realize that prediction in the era of Big Data was not going very well.

Foxes, Tetlock found, are considerably better at forecasting than hedgehogs.

But polls do become more accurate the closer you get to Election Day.

This would have been a good bargain, and not just in hindsight; a Manifold market at the time presciently assigned SBF a 71 percent chance