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Nate Silver
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Nate Silver • 1 highlight
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I came to realize that prediction in the era of Big Data was not going very well.
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
someone with an informed, original opinion about what the betting line should be, usually formulated through painstaking statistical modeling.
Nate Silver • On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything
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Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Monthly visitors remain relatively stable with over 150k unique visitors and 3 to 4 million page views
David Chee • Is Trump really 62% to win?
FIGURE 10-7: THE PARETO
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
On average, in the five presidential elections since 1992, the typical “fundamentals-based” model—one that ignored the polls and claimed to discern exactly how voters would behave without them—has missed the final margin between the major candidates by almost 7 percentage points.35 Models that take a more fox-like approach, combining economic data
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