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A few months ago I was at a conference where Robin Hanson spoke about prediction markets.[1] He argued that given how much of companies' outcomes are driven by who they choose to hire, and how non-rigorous the process of selecting employees and revisiting those selections is, there's a literal trillion-dollar opportunity in getting it right. Predic... See more

Byrne Hobart • How Many Trillion-Dollar Companies Should There Be?

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Rory Sutherland on why group decision making is often worse than personal judgement https://t.co/Gj6CRLLF40

richard shotton

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People dramatically under estimate how many decisions one has to make before shipping the v1 of even the simplest product. They all seem obvious in retrospect, but so, so much thinking had to happen to ship something like "press a button, get a ride."

Monopolies are bad. Violence is bad. Monopolies on violence turn out to be one of the best ideas ever. Go figure. #ThinkingIsHard

Take NPS. A management consultant at Bain invented NPS as a quantifiable metric to measure human loyalty to a product. A natural inclination reduced to an acronym in service to efficiency.

Geoff Lewis • Special Edition of Temp Check: Recorded Live @websummit Nov 2, 2021

When we have no idea what something should cost, we believe we’re making the best decision if we neither overspend on the deluxe model nor go too cheap on the basic one.

Dan Ariely • Dollars and Sense

This finding—that anchoring has a weaker effect when we have some rough idea of value versus when we have no idea—is important to keep in mind. When we start with an established value and price range in our minds, it’s harder for outsiders to use anchors to influence our valuations.

Dan Ariely • Dollars and Sense

someone with an informed, original opinion about what the betting line should be, usually formulated through painstaking statistical modeling.

Nate Silver • On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

I think if we're able to build a reliable metric for day-to-day progress, it will not only be a great service for creating more startups, but I think it'll be a great thing for productivity—you don't improve what you don't measure.

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Byrne Hobart • How Many Trillion-Dollar Companies Should There Be?

Monopolies are bad. Violence is bad. Monopolies on violence turn out to be one of the best ideas ever. Go figure. #ThinkingIsHard

Geoff Lewis • Special Edition of Temp Check: Recorded Live @websummit Nov 2, 2021

Dan Ariely • Dollars and Sense

Dan Ariely • Dollars and Sense

Dan Ariely • Dollars and Sense

Nate Silver • On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

Patrick O'Shaughnessy • Finding Undiscovered Talent