Sublime

“A lot of brilliant people are terrible investors. The reason is that they don’t have the ability to make decisions with limited information. By the time you get all the information, everyone else knows it, and you no longer have the edge.

previous decisions. Only 22 percent voted for option C, while 78 percent chose option D, the risky strategy. Most doctors were now acting just like Frank: they were rejecting a guaranteed gain in order to participate in a questionable gamble. Of course, this is a ridiculous shift in preference. The two different questions examine identical dilemmas

The statistical rate of success and failure must be reasonably stable over time for a reference class to be valid.

first decision mistake: using experts instead of mathematical models.

Management psychologist Philip Tetlock concludes from his research that there is an inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and single-minded specialisation. Drawing from Isaiah Berlin's ‘fox and the hedgehog’ analogy, he contends that the fox – the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic a