Sublime
An inspiration engine for ideas
What separated the good from the great investors had little to do with their analytical tools but a great deal to do with how they made decisions.
Michael Mauboussin • Michael Mauboussin — How Great Investors Make Decisions, Harnessing The Wisdom (vs. Madness) of Crowds, Lessons from Race Horses, and More (#659) - The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
Take the example of mergers and acquisitions.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
collectives are typically more valuable than experts when the problem is complex and specifiable rules cannot solve it.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
Watch out for the halo effect.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
Look for ah-whoom moments.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
We are therefore left with a useless tautology: To estimate value, we require an estimate of value.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns, Revised and Updated (Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing Series)
Assess the distribution of outcomes.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
first decision mistake: using experts instead of mathematical models.
Michael J. Mauboussin • Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
Beware of forecasters.