Sublime

Three hours later he returned to find that the markets had changed their minds about the likely effects of Donald Trump on the world’s stock markets. “It was supposed to be Armageddon,” said Sam. “And maybe it was. But it wasn’t Armageddon for US markets.” Markets in the United States actually had rallied, and most of the Jane Street bet was agains

This is fantastic news for lazy people. Investing can be as simple as finding a low-cost mutual fund that matches your risk profile, setting up regular payments, and forgetting about it for a few decades.

1. More than I want big returns, I want to be financially unbreakable. And if I’m unbreakable I actually think I’ll get the biggest returns, because I’ll be able to stick around long enough for compounding to work wonders.

FTX was different from the other exchanges, mainly because the guy who ran it, Sam Bankman-Fried, was different. Every man Natalie Tien had ever met in crypto had been chiefly interested in money and women, and Sam was chiefly interested in neither—though it took her a while to figure out what it was he was chiefly interested in.

For these reasons, prices may pass statistical tests for randomness, but they are not themselves random (although it is plausible that their randomness is random, and that randomness is random, and so on) but rather are unpredictable on the basis of market data alone. They are, however, predictable to the extent that the predictor accurately assess

Same in investing. I wrote in my book The Psychology of Money: “More than I want big returns, I want to be financially unbreakable. And if I’m unbreakable I actually think I’ll get the biggest returns, because I’ll be able to stick around long enough for compounding to work wonders.”