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Des électeurs ordinaires: Enquête sur la normalisation de l'extrême droite (French Edition)
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while foxes tend to get better at forecasting with experience, the opposite is true of hedgehogs: their performance tends to worsen as they pick up additional credentials. Tetlock believes the more facts hedgehogs have at their command, the more opportunities they have to permute and manipulate them in ways that confirm their biases.
Nate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
In Tetlock’s analysis, the foxes—attuned to a wide range of potential sources, willing to admit uncertainty, not devoted to an overarching theory—turned out to be significantly better at predicting future events than the more single-minded experts. The foxes were full spectrum; the hedgehogs were narrowband.
Steven Johnson • Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most
The chapter by Lau and Redlawsk suggests that the use of cognitive shortcuts for reasoned political deliberation may not be as bad for mass political decision-making as once feared (also see Pierce & Lau, 2019). Brader and Gadarian also note that anxiety reduces reliance on heuristics but can have other negative effects on reasoning such as an
... See moreOxford University Press • The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology (OXFORD HANDBOOKS SERIES)
A hedgehog tends to “relate everything to a single central vision, one system, less or more coherent or articulate, in terms of which they understand, think and feel,” wrote Berlin. In contrast, a fox pursues “many ends, often unrelated and even contradictory,” and is skeptical of totalizing theories and causes. Plato and Nietzsche, for example, we
... See moreaudience growth psychology
Michael Dean • 2 cards
Emotion is entropy, and seriously bad for business. I’ve hunted it down to extinction over the years.’