Sublime

worth literally trillions, which he claimed he could put toward EA-related causes. Who knows what the limits were; he’d even told Ellison there was a 5 percent chance he could become president of the United States. His utility function was “closer to linear,” he explained; the trillionth dollar really was almost as good as the first. Technically sp

In December 2010,

This would have been a good bargain, and not just in hindsight; a Manifold market at the time presciently assigned SBF a 71 percent chance

Keep in mind that segmentation on probabilistic, statistical, or even simple profile data is a very rough way of putting people in buckets and will not take into account any individual variations from the norm (which there certainly will be). So don’t get too confident in your creative messaging when you address people from just one segment. Even i

The error stems from the use of the representativeness heuristic: Linda’s description seems to match “bank teller and active in the feminist movement” far better than “bank teller.”

The second asks how much cash you would demand to increase the risk of dying by the same amount.

Studying a specific person can be dangerous because we tend to study extreme examples—the billionaires, the CEOs, or the massive failures that dominate the news—and extreme examples are often the least applicable to other situations, given their complexity. The more extreme the outcome, the less likely you can apply its lessons to your own life, be