Sublime
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Anscombe’s Quartet : Four sets of numbers that look identical on paper (mean average, variance, correlation, etc.) but look completely different when graphed. Describes a situation where exact calculations don’t offer a good representation of how the world works.
Morgan Housel • 100 Little Ideas
Non-Ergodic : When group probabilities don’t apply to singular events. If 100 people play Russian Roulette once, the odds of dying might be, say, 10%. But if one person plays Russian Roulette 100 times, the odds are dying are practically 100%.
Morgan Housel • 100 Little Ideas
Nassim Taleb, author and researcher, sums it up in this graph:
Steven Bartlett • The Diary of a CEO: The 33 Laws of Business and Life
“No one ever made a decision because of a number. They need a story.”
— Daniel Kahneman
— Daniel Kahneman
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Nate Silver • 1 highlight
amazon.com
We know a lot less about hundred-year floods than five-year floods—model error swells when it comes to small probabilities. The rarer the event, the less tractable, and the less we know about how frequent its occurrence—yet the rarer the event, the more confident these “scientists” involved in predicting, modeling, and using PowerPoint in conferenc... See more
Nassim Nicholas Taleb • Incerto 4-Book Bundle
6 discussion topics on which David agrees with Taleb:(1) [p. 286] The sterilized randomness of games does not resemble randomness in real life; thinking it does constitutes the Ludic Fallacy (his neologism). This is exactly right, and mathematicians should pay attention. In my own list of 100 instances of chance in the real world, exactly 1 item is... See more