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There is reasonably strong evidence for what Thaler calls No Free Lunch—it is difficult (although not literally impossible) for any investor to beat the market over the long-term. Theoretically appealing opportunities may be challenging to exploit in practice because of transaction costs, risks, and other constraints on trading. Statistical pattern
... See moreNate Silver • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Daniel Pink • Just a moment...
I can summarize a thousand years of moral philosophy in a few sentences: pre–Hobbes and Bentham, human nature was viewed as a battle between our desire to be good and our temptations to behave badly, and the gist of moral philosophy and religious faith was that we should treat each other as we want to be treated ourselves—the golden rule—and we sho
... See moreW. Brian Arthur • Complexity Economics: Proceedings of the Santa Fe Institute's 2019 Fall Symposium
I am not sure how you feel about “only” one added matrix—after all, it is still cheating—but given that the one difference between these two conditions was the location of the signature line, I see this outcome as a promising way to reduce dishonesty.
Dan Ariely • The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone--Especially Ourselves
The only people who are immune to this mistake are neurologically impaired patients who can't feel any emotion at all. In most situations, these people have very damaged decision-making abilities. And yet, because they don't feel the extra sting of loss, they are able to avoid the costly emotional errors brought on by loss aversion. Consider this e
... See moreJonah Lehrer • How We Decide
animals. We move in the direction of rewards and will easily take steps to avoid punishment. Humans, when we are thoughtful about incentives, will change our behavior to attain a perceived benefit. We will go through the same behavioral hoops to detour around perceived disadvantages.
Shane Parrish • The Great Mental Models Volume 2: Physics, Chemistry and Biology
“It’s not just about observing what a person does,” says Dan Ariely, a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and the author of Predictably Irrational, among other books. “It’s trying to understand the reasons behind that.”
Rob Walker • The Art of Noticing: 131 Ways to Spark Creativity, Find Inspiration, and Discover Joy in the Everyday
rational agents, why don't all of them invest in stocks? Why are low-yield bonds so popular? In 1995, the behavioral economists Richard Thaler and Shlomo Benartzi realized that the key to solving the premium equity puzzle was loss aversion. Investors buy bonds because they hate losing money, and bonds are a safe bet. Instead of making financial dec
... See moreJonah Lehrer • How We Decide
What if you had to sign it just before filling out your expense reports?