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Flyvbjerg’s analyses are intended to guide the authorities that commission public projects, by providing the statistics of overruns in similar projects. Decision makers need a realistic assessment of the costs and benefits of a proposal before making the final decision to approve it. They may also wish to estimate the budget reserve that they need
... See moreDaniel Kahneman • Thinking, Fast and Slow
How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything In Between
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The forecasting method that Flyvbjerg applies is similar to the practices recommended for overcoming base-rate neglect: Identify an appropriate reference class (kitchen renovations, large railway projects, etc.). Obtain the statistics of the reference class (in terms of cost per mile of railway, or of the percentage by which expenditures exceeded b
... See moreDaniel Kahneman • Thinking, Fast and Slow
Real experts, Flyvbjerg writes unambiguously, don’t make plans (Flyvbjerg 2001, 19).
Sönke Ahrens • How to Take Smart Notes: One Simple Technique to Boost Writing, Learning and Thinking – for Students, Academics and Nonfiction Book Writers
The Global Minotaur
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known unknowns--uncertain factors that you are aware of, meaning that the plan is correct but lacking precision, also known as bad luck or bad design.