Sublime

Statistically speaking, if you want to predict who is predisposed against welfare, you can mostly ignore their economic principles. What you really need to know is their prejudices.

Egon Brunswik. Brunswik’s “lens model,” as it is known, provides a way of understanding how good judgments go bad. Brunswik’s model—which strikes at the heart of the snooper’s art—lays out the two ways you can make accurate judgments (using valid cues and ignoring invalid ones) and the two ways you can make faulty judgments (failing to use valid cu

Apart from a shared alarm at his recklessness, the members of the management team were not perfectly unified in their opinions of Sam. Tara had long since decided that he was dishonest and manipulative. Ben still thought him well-intentioned—but terrible at his job. But all felt themselves on a suicide mission.

People in the aggressive pattern are able to self-reference and measure themselves accurately, but they habitually ignore anything that doesn’t support their self-idealization. When considering a task, they often measure only whether they will survive.

“left-wingers are more motivated by creativity, curiosity, and diversity of experience, whereas right-wingers are more motivated by self-control, norm attainment, and rule-following.”

Two factors are relevant: temptation and mindlessness.

As Columbia Business School professor Eric Johnson explained to us, the more meaningful a potential loss is, the more loss averse we become. In other words, the more there is on the line, the easier it is to get swept into an irrational decision.

Biased assessments of risk can perversely influence how we prepare for and respond to crises, business choices, and the political process.