There are three important aspects of probability that we need to explain so you can integrate them into your thinking to get into the ballpark and improve your chances of catching the ball: Bayesian thinking Fat-tailed curves Asymmetries

Think of it this way. In a bell curve type of situation, like displaying the distribution of height or weight in a human population, there are outliers on the spectrum of possibility, but the outliers have a fairly well-defined scope. You’ll never meet a man who is ten times the size of an average man. But in a curve with fat tails, like wealth, th

one of the most fundamental and important statistical concepts—the Central Limit Theorem. In short, this theorem states that as the sample size approaches infinity, the distribution of sample means will follow a normal distribution regardless of what the parent population looks like.