Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition
Summary.
From “I like to be efficient” to “I trust my gut” to “I can make a rational decision,” there are a number of deeply ingrained — and counterproductive — myths we tell ourselves about how we make decisions. Underlying these myths are three common and popular ideas that don’t serve us well: First, as busy people, we d
... See moreCheryl Strauss Einhorn • 11 Myths About Decision-Making
What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of “I’m not sure.”
Annie Duke • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
How to make better decisions: slow down and think twice, conduct a premortem, red-team your strategy, consider counterfactuals, minimize hindsight bias and creeping determinism, and consider a wider range of potential outcomes
Michael Mauboussin • Michael Mauboussin — How Great Investors Make Decisions, Harnessing The Wisdom (vs. Madness) of Crowds, Lessons from Race Horses, and More (#659) - The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
The smartest decision-makers don't go with their guts. Their success relies on having a future-oriented approach and the ability to consider all their options in a creative, productive way.